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Overvalued Fantasy Players


Dion
Updated: 7/26/2018

Overvalued players are players that are being drafted earlier than their rank should justify. For example, if a player is ranked as the 40th best player, they should be drafted with the last pick of the 4th round (in a 10 team league), or pick number 40. If the is drafted significantly earlier than the 40th pick they are being overvalued. This is a bad idea, if we trust our projections, because he will not live up to his draft pick. The purpose of this article is to show which players are currently being overvalued according to their rank and average draft position. These will be players we will want to avoid, unless they fall to a draft position more in line with their rank.

The data we are using comes from our sister site www.fandraftic.com. Fandraftic is an online web application to make fantasy drafting easier, but it allows us to easily see the overvalued players. We are using an average of the projections for the players from sites like ESPN, Sportsline, Numberfire, etc, and applying them to the default Yahoo scoring and roster type for a 10 team league. The average draft position data comes from www.fantasyfootballcalculator.com. Anyway, enough about that, let's get started.

Player Team/Position Rank ADP Notes
Davante Adams Packers/WR 17 27 Aaron Rodgers is back, Jordy Nelson has moved to Oakland, nobody thinks of Randall Cobb anymore so Davante Adams is definitely going to be the man this year, right? Well that is probably true, but it seems according to the projections people are getting a little too optimistic and drafting him a round too early. Since it his rank is only 10 spots off from his ADP we wouldn't fault you for grabbing him at 17 if you really liked him because depending on your draft position he might not be there at your next pick, but prepare for him to perform like a 3rd round pick not a second.
Mike Evans Buccaneers/WR 34 24 I'm not sure how much of this difference is due to Jameis Winston's 3 game suspension, but I'm assuming it is a fair amount of it. Therefore if you can ride out the first 3 weeks, or if Ryan Fitzpatrick performs well there may not be too much of an issue here..
Derrick Henry Titans/RB 38 26 Some of the air was let out of the Derrick Henry balloon after the Titans signed Dion Lewis to a 4 year $20 million contract during free agency. It seems likely that if you are going to give a RB that much money they are probably going to play, and if you are a Derrick Henry fan, it is probably more than you want. Drafters may move more towards the rankings as the offseason moves on, but as of today Henry is looking overvalued by a little more than a round.
T.Y. Hilton Colts/WR 44 33 It's true there was a sighting of Andrew Luck throwing a football, but anyone that was bit by the "just a few more weeks" talk from last year probably will be a little hesitant to draft Hilton at his current ADP. If we see more positive signs out of Luck I'll bet his projections will edge up and reduce that gap, but until then Hilton is a bit overvalued.
Stefon Diggs Vikings/WR 47 36 Sure, everyone remembers the catch at the end of the Vikings/Saints game last year, and it seems like Diggs drafters have that fresh in their mind. Will Diggs have immediate chemistry with Cousins seems to be question the projections are asking, as he's projected a little over a round worse than his ADP.
Rashaad Penny Seattle/RB 53 37 Seattle's offensive line really focused on the offensive last year. As a result Seattle RBs didn't have much fantasy value. Drafters are assuming that Rashaad Penny will change that as they are drafting him with the 37th pick. The projections beg to differ though as they feel he will be performing around the level of the 53rd pick.
Mark Ingram Saints/RB 66 47 I believe these numbers are a little misleading. Mark Ingram is facing a 4 game suspension to start the season for many fantasy leagues that is one third of the regular season. Therefore Ingram's projections on a per game basis put him down with players that he is significantly better than. So by the time he comes back he should outperform the other players in his rank group, but if no Ingram for 4 weeks causes you to go 0-4 it might not matter how good he is when he comes back.
Josh Gordon Browns/WR 100 29 It doesn't surprise me to see Josh Gordon being drafted a full 4 rounds before his current rank. Those people are willing to swing for the fences that Josh Gordon will look like the Josh Gordon of old, which could be a league changer for you. Unfortunately, he is being drafted around the same time as Doug Baldwin, Tyreek Hill and T.Y. Hilton. With Gordon stating that he will be missing some training camp so he can deal with his health it adds some pretty big question marks for someone that is being drafted that high.

Overall
We're still pretty early with the projections and the ADP values so hopefully we'll see a fair amount of movement in the next few weeks as new news comes out. Check back for updates, or go to fandraftic.com to see the complete rankings.